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One vaccine to counter many diseases? Modeling the economics of oral polio vaccine against child mortality and COVID-19.

Frontiers in public health

Authors: Angela Y Chang, Peter Aaby, Michael S Avidan, Christine S Benn, Stefano M Bertozzi, Lawrence Blatt, Konstantin Chumakov, Shabaana A Khader, Shyam Kottilil, Madhav Nekkar, Mihai G Netea, Annie Sparrow, Dean T Jamison

INTRODUCTION: Recent reviews summarize evidence that some vaccines have heterologous or non-specific effects (NSE), potentially offering protection against multiple pathogens. Numerous economic evaluations examine vaccines' pathogen-specific effects, but less than a handful focus on NSE. This paper addresses that gap by reporting economic evaluations of the NSE of oral polio vaccine (OPV) against under-five mortality and COVID-19.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied two settings: (1) reducing child mortality in a high-mortality setting (Guinea-Bissau) and (2) preventing COVID-19 in India. In the former, the intervention involves three annual campaigns in which children receive OPV incremental to routine immunization. In the latter, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was developed to estimate the population benefits of two scenarios, in which OPV would be co-administered alongside COVID-19 vaccines. Incremental cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost ratios were modeled for ranges of intervention effectiveness estimates to supplement the headline numbers and account for heterogeneity and uncertainty.

RESULTS: For child mortality, headline cost-effectiveness was $650 per child death averted. For COVID-19, assuming OPV had 20% effectiveness, incremental cost per death averted was $23,000-65,000 if it were administered simultaneously with a COVID-19 vaccine <200 days into a wave of the epidemic. If the COVID-19 vaccine availability were delayed, the cost per averted death would decrease to $2600-6100. Estimated benefit-to-cost ratios vary but are consistently high.

DISCUSSION: Economic evaluation suggests the potential of OPV to efficiently reduce child mortality in high mortality environments. Likewise, within a broad range of assumed effect sizes, OPV (or another vaccine with NSE) could play an economically attractive role against COVID-19 in countries facing COVID-19 vaccine delays.

FUNDING: The contribution by DTJ was supported through grants from Trond Mohn Foundation (BFS2019MT02) and Norad (RAF-18/0009) through the Bergen Center for Ethics and Priority Setting.

Copyright © 2022 Chang, Aaby, Avidan, Benn, Bertozzi, Blatt, Chumakov, Khader, Kottilil, Nekkar, Netea, Sparrow and Jamison.

PMID: 36276367

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